Deb  Bennett

Deb Bennett

Broker

Keller Williams Advantage Realty, Brokerage *

Mobile:
416 624 4333
Office:
416-465-4545
Email Me

Toronto Market Analysis | July 2022

We know your market and here’s where we prove it.

Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Toronto area and our take on what it means.  We do that by answering three questions for you.

  • What happened in the Toronto real estate market this past month?

  • How did it feel to be a buyer or seller in Toronto this past month?

  • What’s going to happen next with Toronto real estate?

Let’s get started.

  • What happened in Toronto in July, 2022?

If we had to pick a simple way to describe the Toronto real estate market in July, we’d say it was extremely slow.  We hit the lowest level of sales in the past two years, prices dropped for the third month in a row and the number of new listings dropped significantly.  In a nutshell, not many people were buying, the properties that did sell got less money and fewer people decided to list their home for sale.

Let’s look at the specifics for what was going on in Toronto in our three big categories.

NUMBER OF SALES

If we begin by looking at the number of sales that happened in July 2022, we see they dropped around 24% compared to last month, down to about 1,800 sales.

Toronto Number of Sales (Source: TorontoMLS Historic Residential Data)Jun '20Aug '20Oct '20Dec '20Feb '21Apr '21Jun '21Aug '21Oct '21Dec '21Feb '22Apr '22Jun '2201,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

Date Sales
Jun '20 2,813
Jul '20 3,564
Aug '20 3,357
Sep '20 3,544
Oct '20 3,492
Nov '20 3,024
Dec '20 2,700
Jan '21 2,652
Feb '21 3,723
Mar '21 5,126
Apr '21 4,675
May '21 4,100
Jun '21 3,835
Jul '21 3,252
Aug '21 2,988
Sep '21 3,387
Oct '21 3,781
Nov '21 3,577
Dec '21 2,388
Jan '22 2,235
Feb '22 3,221
Mar '22 3,957
Apr '22 3,011
May '22 2,676
Jun '22 2,417
Jul '22 1,833

1,833

Sales in July 2022

24.2%

LESS sales in July than June

43.6%

LESS sales this July than last July 2021

What’s it mean?

One of the things that stood out when we look at the stats for July 2022 is the extreme slow down in the number of sales.  Sales went down by almost 25% compared to last month and they are down 44% compared to what they were a year ago (July 2021).  Every month we look at the highest and lowest month in the past two years for number of sales.  In June 2022, the slowest month in the last two years was May 2020, which was when COVID was really impacting the market for the first time.  In July 2022, the slowest month in two years is, in fact, July 2022.  So, make no mistake, it was very slow in Toronto for sales.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

When we look at just condo apartment sales, the story pretty similar.  We had 963 condo apartment sales in July 2022, which is 18% fewer than last month and 45% fewer than a year ago (July 2021).  This is the first time in two years that we’ve had less than 1,000 condo apartment units sell in the city and it is the slowest month for condo sales we’ve seen since, you guessed it, the start of COVID.

AVERAGE SALE PRICE

In terms of prices, July 2022 saw the average price for a home dip significantly to approximately $1,019,000.

Toronto Average Sale Price (Source: TorontoMLS Historic Residential Data)Jun '20Aug '20Oct '20Dec '20Feb '21Apr '21Jun '21Aug '21Oct '21Dec '21Feb '22Apr '22Jun '22800,000900,0001,000,0001,100,0001,200,0001,300,000

Date Avg Price
Jun '20 1,023,308
Jul '20 1,017,744
Aug '20 1,012,817
Sep '20 1,022,227
Oct '20 1,027,313
Nov '20 979,460
Dec '20 894,090
Jan '21 865,373
Feb '21 994,661
Mar '21 1,082,575
Apr '21 1,087,192
May '21 1,117,485
Jun '21 1,078,684
Jul '21 1,015,755
Aug '21 999,510
Sep '21 1,090,422
Oct '21 1,122,409
Nov '21 1,096,761
Dec '21 1,021,566
Jan '22 1,072,281
Feb '22 1,210,492
Mar '22 1,217,611
Apr '22 1,243,065
May '22 1,234,124
Jun '22 1,152,709
Jul '22 1,019,100

$1,019,100

Average sale price in July 2022

11.6%

LOWER prices in July than June

0.3%

HIGHER prices this July than last July 2021

What’s it mean? 

After hitting an all-time price high in Toronto in April 2022 of $1.242M on average, we’ve had three months of dropping prices.  Our new average price of $1.019M is the lowest price since August 2021 and means we went down in the double digits (11.6% to be precise) in just one month.  When we compare against this time last year, we’re still up by a tiny amount (0.3%), but the gains of the past year in Toronto have largely been erased with this price drop.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

The condo market also dropped in July, but going down by much more modest 3.6% month over month decline.  The condo market has been seeing steady, similar sized price drops (between $15K to 20K each month) since it’s all time high in March 2022 of $832,000.  We’re now at an average price in the city of $774,000 for a condo unit and while that $88K drop from the height may seem bad for recent condo buyers, the market for condo units has actually been better than the market as a whole, on a year over year basis.  The average price now for a condo apartment unit in the city is 4.3% higher than it was in July 2021, which is 4% better appreciation than the market as a whole.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS

Our final source for what’s been happening this month in the Toronto real estate market is the number of new listings that came on the market, which dropped by almost 27%, down to about 4,400 new listings.

Toronto New Listings (Source: TorontoMLS Historic Residential Data)Jun '20Aug '20Oct '20Dec '20Feb '21Apr '21Jun '21Aug '21Oct '21Dec '21Feb '22Apr '22Jun '2202,0004,0006,0008,00010,000

Date New Listings
Jun '20 6,144
Jul '20 6,963
Aug '20 7,413
Sep '20 8,702
Oct '20 7,822
Nov '20 5,112
Dec '20 2,281
Jan '21 3,549
Feb '21 4,707
Mar '21 7,231
Apr '21 7,483
May '21 7,050
Jun '21 6,384
Jul '21 5,114
Aug '21 4,211
Sep '21 5,957
Oct '21 5,144
Nov '21 4,253
Dec '21 1,965
Jan '22 3,111
Feb '22 4,890
Mar '22 6,545
Apr '22 6,167
May '22 6,879
Jun '22 5,989
Jul '22 4,392

4,392

New listings in July 2022

26.7%

LESS new listings in July than June

14.1%

LESS new listings in July than last July 2021

What’s it mean? 

While a drop in the number of new listings should mean the market is a bit better for sellers, we always need to compare it against what is going on with the number of sales.  We’ll speak to that when we review the sales to new listing ratio, but for right now, we’ll say that the 4,392 new listings is a step in the right direction.  Too much inventory when buyers are sitting on the sideline tends to push prices down.  We dropped our level of new listings by about 27% compared to last month and we’re also down (about 14%) compared to July 2021.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

When we look at just condo apartment new listings, we see a very similar story.  The number of new listings (2,422 in July) is a drop of 23% compared to last month and we have 18.5% fewer new condo listings than a year ago.  Given we hit a two-year low for number of sales, a drop in the number of new listings is helpful for moderating price changes in the condo market.  Keep in mind that we still had almost three times as many new condo listings came on the market as sold, so don’t expect condo prices to rebound just yet.

  • How’d it feel to be buying or selling in Toronto in July, 2022?

July is typically when we see a bit of a summer slow down.  That has absolutely been true (and then some) this year when we look at the number of sales, but it has also shown up in some other ways.  In Toronto we saw our days on market jump up five days to 20 days on average and our average sale to list price ratio dropped below 100% for the first time in two years.  It felt like the market was moving much slower and it was markedly less competitive.

Let’s look in detail at the two specific stats that tell us how it felt to buy and sell in Toronto this month.

DAYS ON MARKET

One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market.  The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides.  While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly.  The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.

In July2022, we saw the length of time it took for homes to sell go up five days, to 20 days on average.

Toronto Days on Market (Source: TorontoMLS Historic Residential Data)Jun '20Aug '20Oct '20Dec '20Feb '21Apr '21Jun '21Aug '21Oct '21Dec '21Feb '22Apr '22Jun '22010203040

Date Avg DOM
Jun '20 15
Jul '20 16
Aug '20 16
Sep '20 16
Oct '20 17
Nov '20 21
Dec '20 29
Jan '21 31
Feb '21 20
Mar '21 12
Apr '21 11
May '21 12
Jun '21 13
Jul '21 16
Aug '21 19
Sep '21 16
Oct '21 16
Nov '21 17
Dec '21 19
Jan '22 18
Feb '22 11
Mar '22 9
Apr '22 12
May '22 13
Jun '22 15
Jul '22 20

20 Days

on average to sell in July 2022

33.3%

LONGER to sell in July than June

25.0%

LONGER to sell this July than last July 2021

How did it feel?

One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Toronto in July is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Toronto in July was 20 days, which is up 5 days from June, when it was 15 days. That means it took 33% longer for homes to sell, and it felt less competitive.  In July 2020 and July 2021 it was 16 days on average, so this July is not just a slowdown from previous months, it is markedly slower than is typical for the July market in Toronto.

Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?

When we look at just condo apartments, the story about days on market is similar.  In March 2022, we hit a two-year low of 10 days on average for a condo unit to sell in the city.  As of July 2022, we’re now at 22 days on average, up four days from last month.  In July 2020 and July 2021, it was 17 days on average, so our current 22 days on average means that, yes, this is not just a summer slow down, it’s actually slow in the condo market as well.

SALE TO LIST PRICE RATIO

The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio.  This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers.  If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property.  If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.

In July, the average sale to list price ratio dropped to 99.1%.

Toronto Sale to List Price Ratio (Source: TorontoMLS Historic Residential Data)Jun '20Aug '20Oct '20Dec '20Feb '21Apr '21Jun '21Aug '21Oct '21Dec '21Feb '22Apr '22Jun '2295100105110115

Date Sale to List
Jun '20 101.2
Jul '20 101.7
Aug '20 101.9
Sep '20 102.5
Oct '20 101.6
Nov '20 100.7
Dec '20 100.2
Jan '21 101.1
Feb '21 104.8
Mar '21 107.4
Apr '21 107.3
May '21 106.1
Jun '21 104.4
Jul '21 103
Aug '21 102.8
Sep '21 105.1
Oct '21 105.6
Nov '21 105.7
Dec '21 105.8
Jan '22 109.1
Feb '22 113.5
Mar '22 112.7
Apr '22 107.8
May '22 104.4
Jun '22 101.3
Jul '22 99.1

99.1%

Average sale to list price in July 2022

2%

LOWER ratio in July than June

4%

LOWER ratio this July than last July 2021

How did it feel?

The average sale to list price ratio in Toronto in July was 99.1%, which is down from June when it was 101.3%. That’s a 2.2% drop in how much over list price sellers received, which means the market felt less competitive in July.  More crucially, this is the first time we’ve seen the average sale to list price in Toronto drop to below 100% in two years.  While this stat is heavily influenced by the listing strategy sellers use, it is still significant to see that sellers are now expecting less than what they list for in Toronto.

Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?

When we look at just condo apartments, the sale to list price ratio told the same story, with a drop from a two-year high of 110.4% in February to 98.8% in July 2022.  Again, just like with the market as a whole, we’re below 100% for the first time in a while.  Our two year low for this stat was reached in December 2020 when it was 98.1%, so we’re less than a percent off that low.  This is the first time since January 2021 that the condo market went below 100%, so it definitely felt less competitive than has been typical.

  • What’s going to happen in Toronto in August, 2022?

We predicted that the overall average price in Toronto in July would drop, both for the market as a whole as for the condo market.  We were absolutely right, with very significant price drops (11.6% for the market as a whole and a more modest 3.6% drop in the average condo unit price) across the board.

When we look at the predictive stats for Toronto in July, we see signs that the average sale price should drop again in August.  Our sales to new listing ratio went up slightly to 41.7% but is still very low by Toronto standards.  Our active listings dropped by over 400 properties and our months of inventory jumped to the highest we’ve seen in the past two years.  We are predicting another significant price drop in August for both the market as a whole as well as the condo market.

Let’s take a more detailed look at the three predictive stats we have for what comes next in the Toronto market.

SALES TO NEW LIST RATIO (SNLR)

Let’s start with an acronym!  The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months.  It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.

  • If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
  • Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
  • Under 50% tells us that the we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month.  This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.

In July, we saw the SNLR rebound slightly to 41.7% but we’re still in what we would call a buyer’s market.

Toronto Sales to New List Ratio (Source: TorontoMLS Historic Residential Data)Jun '20Aug '20Oct '20Dec '20Feb '21Apr '21Jun '21Aug '21Oct '21Dec '21Feb '22Apr '22Jun '220255075100125150

Date SNLR
Jun '20 45.8
Jul '20 51.2
Aug '20 45.3
Sep '20 40.7
Oct '20 44.6
Nov '20 59.2
Dec '20 118.4
Jan '21 74.7
Feb '21 79.1
Mar '21 70.9
Apr '21 62.5
May '21 58.2
Jun '21 60.1
Jul '21 63.6
Aug '21 71
Sep '21 56.9
Oct '21 73.5
Nov '21 84.1
Dec '21 121.5
Jan '22 71.8
Feb '22 65.9
Mar '22 60.5
Apr '22 48.8
May '22 38.9
Jun '22 40.4
Jul '22 41.7

41.7%

Sales to new listing ratio in July 2022

3%

HIGHER ratio in July than June

34%

LOWER ratio this July than last July 2021

What does this predict?

The first of our three predictive stats is the sales to new list ratio (or SNLR) which increased in July, going up 1.3% to 41.7%.  This is an effective 3.2% increase in one month. On its own, a increasing SNLR indicates prices should rise but we also need to consider how balanced the market is before we can make that prediction. In this case, given the SNLR of 41.7% we would describe the current market in Toronto as somewhat of a buyer’s market.  We’ve been below 50% SNLR four four months now and that means we’re continuing to see similar drops in the levels of new sellers as well as new buyers.  Until one changes, we’ll likely see another price drop in August based on this stat.

How will the condo market do?

The SNLR for the condo market also went up by a very slight amount, going from 37% to 39.8%.  While it is technically an improvement, prices for condos will drop according to this stat, as buyers continue to have more options of stale listings on the condo market, which pushes seller prices down.  We’re down compared to this time last year (when it was 58.8% SNLR) and even lower than if we compare to near the start of COVID (July 2020), when the condo market SNLR was 42.1%.

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS

As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means.  The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month.  This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.

July saw the number of active listings drop somewhat to about 5,900 options for buyers.

Toronto Active Listings (Source: TorontoMLS Historic Residential Data)Jun '20Aug '20Oct '20Dec '20Feb '21Apr '21Jun '21Aug '21Oct '21Dec '21Feb '22Apr '22Jun '2202,0004,0006,0008,00010,000

Date Active Listings
Jun '20 5,331
Jul '20 6,129
Aug '20 7,211
Sep '20 8,586
Oct '20 8,623
Nov '20 7,286
Dec '20 4,309
Jan '21 3,529
Feb '21 3,371
Mar '21 3,960
Apr '21 4,627
May '21 5,196
Jun '21 5,128
Jul '21 4,705
Aug '21 4,103
Sep '21 4,821
Oct '21 4,247
Nov '21 3,342
Dec '21 1,806
Jan '22 1,918
Feb '22 2,785
Mar '22 3,726
Apr '22 4,732
May '22 5,972
Jun '22 6,291
Jul '22 5,877

5,877

Active listings in July 2022

6.6%

LESS active listings in July than June

24.9%

MORE active listings this July than last July 2021

What does this predict?

We had 5,877 active listings on the market as of the end of July, which is a 7% decrease compared to June when we had 6,291 listings on the market at the end of the month. On it’s own, this sort of change in the number of active listings would predict that prices would rise, as the level of available options for buyers has decreased.  There is no such thing as average number of active listings, so while there are technically fewer options for buyers right now, that has to be balanced against the number of buyers who are looking for homes.  We would say this slight drop in active listings is not likely to impact the market or average price.

How will the condo market do?

The condo market followed the market as a whole, and saw the number of active listings drop slightly, down from 3,593 condo apartment units for sale in Toronto in June to 3,382 in July.  That’s 6% fewer options for buyers, or about 200 less units.  While that change is technically favourable to sellers as buyers have slightly less options, it is not a significant change and on its own, doesn’t seem likely to impact the market.  This stat would indicate that condo prices should remain relatively flat.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY (MOI)

Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Toronto.

This statistic tracks how long it would take for all properties on the market in Toronto to sell if we stopped having any new listings.  The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market.  Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market.

July saw Toronto’s months of inventory jump up to 3.2 months.

Toronto Months of Inventory (Source: TorontoMLS Historic Residential Data)Jun '20Aug '20Oct '20Dec '20Feb '21Apr '21Jun '21Aug '21Oct '21Dec '21Feb '22Apr '22Jun '2201234

Date MOI
Jun '20 1.9
Jul '20 1.7
Aug '20 2.1
Sep '20 2.4
Oct '20 2.5
Nov '20 2.4
Dec '20 1.6
Jan '21 1.3
Feb '21 0.9
Mar '21 0.8
Apr '21 1
May '21 1.3
Jun '21 1.3
Jul '21 1.4
Aug '21 1.4
Sep '21 1.4
Oct '21 1.1
Nov '21 0.9
Dec '21 0.8
Jan '22 0.9
Feb '22 0.9
Mar '22 0.9
Apr '22 1.6
May '22 2.2
Jun '22 2.6
Jul '22 3.2

3.2

Months of inventory as of July 2022

23.1%

MORE inventory in July than June

128.6%

MORE inventory this July than last July 2021

What does this predict?

Toronto has traditionally had extremely low months of inventory, often under 1.5 months and it hasn’t been to uncommon to see it drop below one month.  This is another way of saying that we’ve had consistent levels of sales (demand) and whatever the level of listings (supply) have been, it hasn’t been enough to satisfy buyers before it would run out.  The MOI as of the end of July was 3.2 months, which means that technically, the Toronto market is a balanced market as of right now. We will take that with a grain of salt, as we’ve seen such low levels of inventory relative to demand over the past few years, we’ve had to adjust our definitions for the market. A year ago (July 2021), we had an MOI of 1.4 months, so we’ve more than doubled that level as of July 2022.  Given this is the highest MOI we’ve seen in the city in over two years, we would say it predicts that a price decrease in August is very likely.

How will the condo market do?

The months of inventory for the condo segment increased to 3.5 months in July 2022, up from 3.1 months in June 2022.  That may not seem like a huge increase, but but it is a far cry from the 0.8 months of inventory that we saw in January and February of 2022.  Just like with the market as a whole, we have doubled the level of inventory compared to July 2021 and this stat predicts that it is likely that condo prices will drop in August as buyers continue to feel the market shift in their favour.

  • What’s it all mean?

When we look at all of the various statistics for Toronto’s July real estate market, we see a market that has changed dramatically since the start of the year.

Buyers are sitting on the sidelines, resulting in the lowest level of real estate sales we’ve seen in over two years.  The average price has dropped by more than $220,000 since the all-time high in April 2022 and our number of new listings are continuing to drop as sellers decide now is not the time to list their homes.

The feel of the market has continued to shift as well.  Homes are taking significantly longer to sell (now at 20 days on average compared to 9 days in March 2022) and for the first time in more than two years, sellers are accepting less than their list price.

As we look to what is coming next, our level of sales compared to new listings remains at very low levels for Toronto, indicating that prices should continue to drop.  The number of active listings has dropped slightly, but not enough to compensate for the extremely low level of sales.  As a result, the months of inventory in the city has jumped to a two year high, with over three months of inventory.  That’s a far cry from the average of 1.3 months we saw in 2021, or the less than one month in the first three months of 2022.

When you combine it all, it shows that the market is continue to shift and rebalance after a long period of sellers holding all of the power.  We expect that August will continue to see the market adjust and prices will drop again.  Despite all of these changes, there are still good opportunities for both buyers and sellers.  On the buy side, there are more options and more flexibility from sellers than we’ve seen in years.  On the sell side, many sellers and agents don’t quite grasp how the market has shifted and are making mistakes in how they price and present their properties.  If you want to buy or sell, then you should work with agents who understand your market.  If that sounds appealing, get in touch!

Buying

Buying

Selling

Selling

Have Questions?

You hereby consent to receive calls or texts messages from www.dbproperties.ca. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the UNSUBSCRIBE link in the email or by replying "UNSUBSCRIBE" to the text message.